4/10/2022

What Is A Good Count In Blackjack

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  1. See full list on gamblingsites.org.
  2. The most common variations of card counting in blackjack are based on statistical evidence that high cards (especially aces and 10s, and to a lesser extent 9s) benefit the player more than the dealer, while the low cards, (3s, 4s, 6s, and especially 5s, and to a lesser extent 2s and 7s) help the dealer while hurting the player.

Mar 30, 2008 A good count might be any count that is hgh enough to yeild positive expectation. The advantage increases by ABOUT 0.5% for every increment of one of the true count, you will have to deduct the off the top house advantage from that to get your actual advantage. Jan 23, 2020 Increasing your minimum bet 5x with a count of +2. Increasing your minimum bet 10x with a count of +3 or higher. Why Online Card Counting Usually Doesn’t Work. One more aspect to card counting in blackjack that I haven’t discussed is deck penetration. This term refers to how many decks a casino deals before reshuffling the shoe.

Card counters know that before we bet or play using a balanced strategy,we must adjust the running count by the un-dealt cards. That is, convertthe running count into a true count. Most explanations of true count calculationsimply say that the running count is divided by the number of remainingdecks in the shoe. Blackjack card counting books generally provide a simpleexample, like a running count of +6 divided by three remaining decks yieldsa true count of +2 — and they leave it at that. As a result manyquestions remain. The attempt here is to answer some of these questions.

What is the true count divisor?

When using the Hi-Lo card counting strategy, we divide by the numberof remaining decks. But this is not true of all strategies. For example:

  • Revere Point Count and Hi-Lo Lite divide by remaining half-decks.
  • The 1998 version of Zen divides by quarter-decks remaining. The originalZen divided by full-decks.
  • The Mentor card counting strategy essentially divides by the numberof double-decks remaining. More on this later.

Generally, there is not much difference in overall effectiveness. However,if you are not using fractional true counts for betting, there is a performancepenalty for using half-decks in a level 1 strategy or quarter-decks ina level 2 strategy.

How are non-integer results handled?

Suppose we have a running count of +3 and 2 remaining decks. 3/2=1.5.However, nearly all counters use integers for betting and indexes. Thereexist four methods of converting to integers:

  • Truncate – For positive numbers,round down and for negative numbers round up. This is the method usedin the 1994 and later editions of Professional Blackjack. 1.5is rounded down to 1. -1.5 is rounded up to -1.
  • Floor – Numbers are always roundeddown. This is the method used in the early versions of ProfessionalBlackjack. 1.5 is rounded down to 1. -1.5 is rounded down to -2.This is the most popular method used now.
  • Round – After the True Count division,the result is rounded to the nearest integer. If the number is exactlybetween two integers, it is rounded up. 1.5 is rounded up to 2. -1.5is rounded up to -1. This method is also common.
  • Statistical Round – After the TrueCount division, the result is rounded to the nearest integer. If thenumber is exactly between two integers, it is rounded to the nearesteven number. 1.5 is rounded up to 2. -1.5 is rounded down to -2.

Flooring and rounding are nearly equal in performance. Truncating isslightly inferior as it results in a very large percentage of true countsof zero, which in turn results in reduced precision. For best performance,you should use the method that was used when the indexes that you usewere generated.

How do we estimate remaining decks?

We need to divide by a number related to the number of decks remaining.But how do we obtain this number. Different players estimate the remainingcards in different manners as follows:

  • Look at the shoe – This seems obviousas we are dividing by the number of remaining decks, and they are sittingin the shoe. However, this is not very accurate as all the cards arenot visible and the cards are not always stacked tightly. Very few peopleuse this method. On the other hand, Revere used to teach this methodin his private classes precisely because so few people use this methodand it doesn't require looking at the discard tray. Also, some tablesnow hide the cards in the discard tray.
  • Subtract cards in discard tray –The most common method is to look at the discard tray and subtract fromthe starting number of decks. Of course this is not quite accurate forplaying decisions since it ignores the cards on the table.
  • Subtract cards dealt – In calculatingthe remaining cards, subtract the total number of cards dealt from thetotal cards including those on the table both seen and unseen. Thisis a bit more accurate, and more difficult. (Many Blackjack simulatorsincorrectly use this method.)
  • Subtract cards seen – Only takeinto account the actual number of cards seen. That is the cards in thediscard tray (minus unseen burn cards) plus only the cards on the tablethat you have seen. This is the most accurate and the most difficult.Few people use this method.
  • Count hands – In single deck games,some people count the number of hands, multiply by 2.7 and subtractfrom 52.

By far, most people look at the discard tray.

How closely must we estimate remaining decks?

That is, what is the resolution of the estimate. Very few people estimateremaining cards to the exact card. (Although some Blackjack simulatorsinaccurately assume this.) When playing shoes, most people estimate tothe nearest remaining full-decks or half-decks remaining. When playingsingle deck, you should estimate by quarter-decks. In deeply-dealt games,you might want to be more accurate toward the end of the shoe. Alas wesee few deeply-dealt Blackjack games these days. For best results, youshould estimate the remaining decks to the same degree of accuracy thatwas used during generation of the indexes that you are using.

Custom true count calculation

Some people use a table of divisors (or multipliers) instead of dividingby the remaining decks. For example, the Mentor count uses a table ofmultipliers used to convert the running count to a true count dependingon a table of remaining decks that becomes more precise as the shoe isdepleted. This is described in Blackjack Bluebook II by Fred Renzey.

True count calculation by rounds

Yet another method is to look up a multiplier in a table based on thenumber of players and the round number. Then use that multiplier to convertthe running count to a true count. This can be used in single deck play.This is described in Play Blackjack Like the Pros by Kevin Blackwood.

How often do we calculate true counts?

Everyone recalculates before making a bet. Different players make additionalrecalculations differently as follows:

  • Before Insurance – Recalculate beforean Insurance bet. Counts all seen cards, including all of your handsin face down dealing.
  • Before first decision – Recalculatebefore the first playing decision in each hand.
  • Before every close decision – Recalculatefor every playing decision that matters.

Recalcualtion for every decision is very important in single-deck Blackjackgames. In shoe games, failing to recalculate results in a performancehit of 5%-10% depending on penetration.

Is there any time that I do not calculate true count?

Some people use the running count for decisions with a zero index. Forexample, when you have a 16 vs. ten, the running count is actually a bitmore accurate than the true count using some strategies.

And you thought it was simple.J


You’ve likely seen movies where card counters make big profits. Although such film scenes are unrealistic, they at least show that skilled counters do win money.

But one thing you never see in these movies is somebody sitting at home and making thousands of dollars through online blackjack. In fact, it’s widely assumed that card counting doesn’t work at online casinos.

You may be surprised to find out, though, that card counting actually is possible at gaming sites. However, the real question is if it’s profitable.

I’m going to cover the stigma against online card counting and why it’s feasible in certain cases. I’ll finish by discussing if the profits make it worth your time to be an internet card counter.

What Are the Basics of Card Counting?

The very essence of card counting is to determine when you have a stronger chance of getting a natural blackjack. Assuming you’re playing at a table with favorite rules, then you’ll receive a 3:2 payout on your original bet (some tables only offer 6:5).

Your chances of getting a natural blackjack increase greatly when the shoe has a larger percentage of aces and 10s compared to other card values. You’ll theoretically gain more value by increasing your bet size at this point.

Of course, you won’t naturally know when these situations are present. But card counting gives you a tool for figuring out when the shoe is rich in aces and 10s.

The first thing you need to count cards is a system. Many different counting systems exist, and they differ based on their accuracy and complexity.

The Hi-Lo offers a happy medium between accuracy and ease of use. But the jest of the Hi-Lo is that you assign values to each card that comes out. Here are the point values for each type of card:

  • Aces, face cards, and 10s (high cards) = -1
  • 7, 8, and 9 = 0 (neutral)
  • 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 (low cards) = +1

You want fewer low cards in the shoe, which is why your positive count increases when they come out.

The Hi-Lo also calls on you to account for how many decks are left in a shoe with a “true count.” You do this by dividing your “running count” by the estimated amount of remaining decks.

Here’s an example:

  • Your running count is +6.
  • You estimate that two decks are left.
  • 6 / 2 = +3 true count

You can increase your bet size as the positive true count grows. A simple way to do this is by:

  • Flat betting with a count of 0 or +1.
  • Increasing your minimum bet 5x with a count of +2.
  • Increasing your minimum bet 10x with a count of +3 or higher.

Why Online Card Counting Usually Doesn’t Work

One more aspect to card counting in blackjack that I haven’t discussed is deck penetration. This term refers to how many decks a casino deals before reshuffling the shoe.

Here’s an example:

  • You’re playing at a table with an eight-deck shoe.
  • Five of the eight decks have been dealt.
  • 5 / 8 = 62.5% deck penetration

You want higher deck penetration, because this allows you to place bigger bets with more confidence. A +2 or +3 true count is much more accurate when only one deck remains, versus five or six.

Generally, 75% deck penetration is considered ideal for placing big bets with a positive true count.

Of course, many casinos reshuffle before this point in order to thwart card counters.

Other casinos allow more deck penetration, because they don’t want to slow down games by constantly reshuffling. They figure that lost hands are most costly than simply giving a few counters a bigger advantage.

Online casinos don’t have to worry about lost hands when reshuffling decks. Their software-based (a.k.a. virtual) tables can automatically reshuffle a shoe with no time wasted.

What Is A Good Count In Blackjack Terms

Online gaming providers program their blackjack games to reshuffle with very little deck penetration. You have absolutely no chance to gain an advantage in these cases.

Of course, you could slightly improve your odds if a casino allowed, say, 25% penetration. But this amount isn’t enough to count with any confidence and swing the odds in your favor.

The low deck penetration in online blackjack games is why card counting doesn’t work at virtual tables.

Some Live Dealer Casinos Allow More Deck Penetration

Many online casinos offer live dealer blackjack, which features a human dealer and real cards. These tables operate just like a normal land-based casino would, with the exception that the action is being streamed through your internet device.

Assuming the conditions were perfect, live blackjack would be the best way to count cards. After all, you could sit at home and count without drawing as much suspicion from pit bosses and floor supervisors.

Of course, online casinos aren’t dumb. They know their live tables are susceptible to being beaten through card counting.

Dealers are instructed to shuffle shoes before too much deck penetration is allowed. They’re not going to deal through 75% of the shoe and give you an easy chance to count.

On the other hand, live casinos also need to worry about over-shuffling. Too much shuffling costs hands, meaning the casino has fewer chances to let its house edge take effect.

Some live dealer casino games allow up to 50% deck penetration before reshuffling. You can theoretically gain a tiny advantage in these situations.

I mentioned earlier that at least 75% penetration is ideal. But 50% is just enough to where you can earn a little money over time.

You can visit different live dealer casinos and watch their games to figure out the deck penetration. Take notes on the different percentages in order to find sites that are more susceptible to counting.

What Is A High Count In Blackjack

What Is the Profitability of Live Dealer Card Counting?

The problem with counting in the aforementioned live blackjack games is that it’s just not very profitable. At best, you’re looking at earning a small amount of profits over time.

You also need to be able to use a large “spread,” which is the distance from the minimum bet to your highest wager.

Here’s an example:

  • You’re playing at a table with $5 minimum bets.
  • You increase your wager to $75 with a true count of +3.
  • 75 / 5 = 15
  • Your bet spread is 1-15.

Pro counters generally use between a 1-10 and 1-15 bet spread. But they must be careful, because such large spreads are a telltale sign of a counter.

You need to thoroughly research which land-based casinos allow this type of action without immediately tossing you. Some Las Vegas casinos are more lenient than others.

Gaming sites with live blackjack are generally very lenient with bet spreads. After all, they’re not allowing enough penetration to where you’ll gain a big advantage.

What Is A Good Count In Blackjack Card Game

But you need around a 1-30 spread to get an edge with just 50% penetration. If the table minimum bet were $5, for example, you’d be betting $150 with a +3 true count.

Some online casinos might allow this. Others may eventually ban you if they monitor your play and deem you to be a bad customer.

You can of course “wong in,” which involves counting while sitting out and entering games at favorable points. “Wonging” prevents you from having to play unprofitable hands until detecting a positive count.

Even if you wong in and use a 1-30 spread, you won’t make much money with live dealer card counting. 50% deck penetration is just too low to earn reliable profits.

What Is A Good Count In Blackjack Rules

Another problem is that you’ll have to dedicate a lot of time for such little payoff. Online card counting is nothing more than a low-paying hobby in the long run.

Count

Conclusion

Counting cards at live dealer casinos can result in minimum profits with 50% deck penetration. But you’ll never make any serious money with this practice.

You might be lucky to earn a few dollars an hour, even with a 1-30 bet spread and wonging. These tiny profits hardly seem worth the effort.

Live dealer counting can be a fun hobby. It’s also a nice way to prepare for counting cards at a brick and mortar venue.

Just be aware that you won’t be able to use such large spreads at a land-based casino. You might even attract suspicion at some live dealer tables for doing so.

Also, wonging isn’t permitted at most brick and mortar establishments. Casinos have a “no mid-shoe entry” rule to prevent this from happening.

What Is A Good Count In Blackjack

Nevertheless, land-based casinos are better for profitable card counting. Live dealer sites, meanwhile, are just fun places to hone your counting skills while potentially earning a little money.