How does the Kelly criterion calculator work?
By entering your bankroll, the odds and your estimated probability of winning, the Kelly Criterion calculator will tell you how much you should wager on a certain event to maximise your value and profit.
Use the Kelly Criterion Calculator here
Kelly Criterion Calculator To see the formula in action, lets take an example of a football match where the odds available on the draw are 3.50 (or 5/2 with an implied probability of 28.6%) but your estimate of the true probability is 30%. The formula for calculating the Kelly stake is: (Probability multiplied by odds) - 1 divided by (odds-1). Fractional Kelly betting The recommended Kelly criterion stake will be multiplied by this value. For standard Kelly betting, set the fractional Kelly betting value to 1.00. If you want to be more conservative than the Kelly criterion, enter a value less than 1 (e.g. Input 0.5 if you want to wager 50% of the stake recommended by the Kelly.
- The Kelly Criterion helps you calculate the optimal amount you should wager when there is a difference between the true odds and the given odds. A mathematician called John Kelly Jr.
- The Kelly criterion is maximally aggressive — it seeks to increase capital at the maximum rate possible. Professional gamblers typically take a less aggressive approach, and generally will not bet more than about 2.5% of their bankroll on any wager. In this case that would be $25.00.
| 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 |
According to the Kelly criterion, you should place a wager of approximately 1.18% of your account balance on this selection.
After applying the fractional Kelly value of 0.04, this adjusts to a wager of approximately 1.71% of your account balance.
Based on your account balance of $1,000, this equates to a wager of $11.76.
The expected value of this wager is approximately $11.76*[(0.68)(0.60) + (-1)(0.4)] = $0.09, which equates to a 0.80% return on the funds wagered.
The Kelly criterion returned a value of -0.0061.
Kelly Criterion Harvard
After applying the fractional Kelly value of 0.0, this adjusts to -0.0061 of your account balance.
Kelly Criterion Sbr
Because this number is below 0 you should not back the selection at the available odds.
Kelly Criterion Sports Betting
What is the Kelly Criterion?
Kelly Criterion Wikipedia
The Kelly Criterion is a method by which you can used your assessed probability of an event occurring in conjunction with the odds for the event and your bankroll, to work out how much to wager on the event to maximise your value. By inputting the odds, the probability of the event occurring and your betting balance, you will be able to determine the amount you should wager on the event. The fractional Kelly betting input is a way to change how aggressive or conservative you are with your wagering (1 being the standard and moving towards 0 the more conservative you wish to be with your wagering). Ultimately, the Kelly Criterion calculator, if you are accurate with your assessed probability should increase your value and profit over a long-term period.